Katharina Buczek
Monkeypox cases have been declining since the initial outbreak.
But, understanding the root of transmission– such as how the virus spreads throughout communities and how soon symptoms appear– is crucial for informing government policy and intervention efforts.
To understand these findings further, researchers from the UK Health Security Agency also analyzed monkeypox’s transmission dynamics by studying the UK outbreak.
They used contact tracing and routine surveillance data for over two thousand and seven hundred individuals who tested positive for the virus between May 5 and August 1.
The average age of the individuals was thirty-eight, and ninety-five percent reported being bi, gay, or men who are intimate with other men.
The team found that the virus’ average incubation period– which is the time between exposure and onset of symptoms– was 7.6 days using one statistical model. A second model found the incubation period to be 7.8 days.
Both models also had discrepancies in terms of mean serial interval– or the average time between symptom onset among a primary patient to symptom onset in a secondary contact.
But, both models had a median serial interval between 0.3 and 1.7 days less than the median incubation period.
So, in other words, the researchers found that significant transmission occurs before symptoms appear or are detected.
This finding was also supported by an analysis of the individuals’ specific patient data since ten out of thirteen case-contact patient pairs reported experiencing pre-symptomatic transmission.
In turn, the researchers concluded that an isolation period of sixteen to twenty-three days is required in order to detect up to ninety-five percent of people who are potentially infected.
