A White Christmas Might Not Be In The Cards This Year Due To Global Warming And A 95% Probability Of This Winter Setting New Global Temperature Records, According To New Research
A white Christmas might be off the table this holiday season due to global warming. With the intense heat waves that swept across the world during the summer and fall of 2023, there’s growing worry about a remarkably warm winter on the horizon.
In fact, experts are now cautioning that this winter could bring temperatures higher than ever before recorded.
Between June and October of this year, the globe experienced temperatures substantially higher than the averages from 1991 to 2020.
Specifically, August and September saw temperatures surpass historical norms by 0.62 degrees and 0.69 degrees Celcius, respectively, setting new records that outstripped those of 2016.
This concerning pattern, driven by global warming and the return of the El Niño event after a seven-year hiatus, has sparked worry and drawn international focus.
To evaluate the possible effects of these recent climatic changes, the Short-Term Climate Prediction Team from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, conducted in-depth research.
Their most recent results indicate the likely emergence of an Eastern Pacific El Niño, ranging from moderate to strong in intensity. This is anticipated to lead to atypical weather patterns in regions like East Asia and North America.
The study underscores the joint impact of the El Niño phenomenon and the continuous trend of global warming, raising alarm for the winter of 2023 and 2024.
Most notably, it suggests a 95% probability of this winter setting new global temperature records, with areas in the mid to low latitudes of Eurasia and much of the Americas preparing for an unusually warm season.
EMrpize – stock.adobe.com – illustrative purposes only
In China, winter temperatures could reach twice the normal averages, potentially resulting in the highest winter temperatures recorded since 1991.
Comprehending climate forecasts requires accounting for both internal fluctuations and external influences.
Current studies highlight the effect of external elements like the 2019 Australian wildfires, which contributed to the onset of successive La Niña events. These fires led to the formation of low-lying clouds over the Southern Ocean, causing a drop in sea surface temperatures and affecting the overall climate system.
Additionally, the Sun Yat-sen University Volcanic Research Team’s analysis of historical records of volcanic eruptions in the Southern Hemisphere indicates a connection between these eruptions and the occurrence of La Niña events over the following three years.
This finding highlights the possible cooling impact of volcanic aerosols on the Southern Ocean, akin to the cooling effect produced by cloud formations resulting from wildfires.
As we prepare for a winter that could set new temperature records, this research emphasizes the intricate mix of elements influencing our climate. Furthermore, the team highlights the necessity for ongoing research to more effectively comprehend and predict these climatic patterns.
To read the study’s complete findings, which have since been published in Advances In Atmospheric Sciences, visit the link here.
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