Over the course of our planet’s long history, Earth’s climate has seen some dramatic shifts—and it will only continue to change.
Our world is warming quickly due to large amounts of greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere. They are pushing Earth’s temperatures higher and higher, making natural disasters like wildfires increasingly common.
Experts have been analyzing the fossil record to try to learn more about what Earth’s future has in store for us as human-induced climate change persists.
By studying data on prehistoric temperatures and creating climate models, researchers have been able to piece together Earth’s climate history over the span of about 485 million years.
Their research efforts began in 2018. Paleontologists Scott Wing and Brian Huber wanted to incorporate a temperature curve in the “Deep Time” exhibition at the Smithsonian’s National Museum of Natural History. However, no one had ever managed to produce an accurate, comprehensive representation of Earth’s surface temperatures during the past 539 million years.
So, Wing, Huber, and a team of climate scientists worked together to compile information about Earth’s climate history. They used various methods to estimate prehistoric temperatures. Some scientists investigated ice cores with bubbles trapped inside because the chemical composition of the bubbles could offer hints as to what the ancient climate was like.
They also compared oxygen isotopes in prehistoric fossils and sediment layers to estimate whether Earth was warmer or cooler at certain times. The anatomy of fossilized leaves can even help guide temperature estimates.
For instance, a leaf with long, smooth edges allows water to run off its surface, indicating that it was from a warm, humid habitat. On the other hand, a leaf with shorter, more jagged edges is likely from a cooler climate.
The team assembled a database of more than 150,000 estimates of ancient temperatures. Researchers from the University of Bristol in England, who collaborated on the project, created over 850 climate models that simulated weather conditions during the Phanerozoic period.
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