New Research Suggests That Extreme Heat Could Cause A 233% Increase In Cardiovascular Deaths Over The Next 50 Years If Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Not Significantly Curbed
Climate experts caution that global warming-induced heatwaves might cause a threefold increase in heart-related fatalities over the next 50 years. So, if we don’t significantly curb emissions, the rate of deaths from cardiovascular problems like heart attacks and strokes could skyrocket by as much as 233% within the next 13 to 47 years.
A study affiliated with the American Heart Association further points out that the elderly and Black communities are particularly vulnerable. The team emphasizes that the U.S. could see more than twice the current number of cardiovascular deaths due to rising temperatures.
The research stresses the urgent need for stronger measures to cut down on greenhouse gas emissions. According to the team, doing so could notably lower the death toll attributed to extreme heat.
As it stands, someone in the United States dies due to a cardiovascular condition—which includes various heart and blood vessel issues—every 33 seconds.
From 2008 to 2019, the U.S. saw an extra 1,651 heart-related deaths each summer due to extreme heat. The study points out that future levels of greenhouse gas emissions will be a key factor in shaping the severity of heat conditions and, by extension, their impact on public health.
The University of Pennsylvania team behind the study had earlier examined data from U.S. counties between 2008 and 2017. Their analysis showed a distinct correlation between more days of extreme heat and a surge in heart-related deaths.
This earlier research laid the groundwork for the current study, which uses models to forecast future levels of greenhouse gas emissions and to consider upcoming socioeconomic and demographic shifts in the U.S. population from 2036 to 2065.
The research team calculated the projected increase in cardiovascular deaths linked to extreme heat by contrasting the expected death count for each U.S. county without extreme heat events against the surplus deaths that would happen if the predicted number of extreme heat days were to occur.
For their baseline analysis, the researchers used county-by-county data in the U.S. spanning 2008 to 2019, specifically zeroing in on deaths that occurred during the summer and were primarily caused by cardiovascular issues.
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They also took into account related variables like age, gender, race, ethnicity, and the occurrence of extreme heat days—designated as days when the maximum heat index reached or exceeded 90°F (32.22°C)—in the month of each death.
The heat index, which takes into account both temperature and humidity to gauge how hot it actually feels to the human body, played a vital role in the study. This is because high humidity can hinder the body’s natural cooling mechanism through sweating.
Their findings indicate that even if we fully execute and stick to the currently proposed emission cuts, there would still be a 162% uptick in extra heart-related deaths from extreme heat by the middle of the century, relative to the baseline from 2008-2019.
Conversely, if efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions fall short, the extra cardiovascular deaths due to extreme heat are projected to climb by 233% in the years ahead.
The research underscores the pivotal role that eco-friendly policies have in shaping health impacts. According to projections, adults aged 65 and up could see a 2.9 to 3.5-fold spike in heart-related deaths from extreme heat compared to those aged 20 to 64.
Additionally, non-Hispanic Black adults could face a 3.8 to 4.6 times higher increase in such deaths compared to non-Hispanic White adults, with the exact increase contingent on how rigorously green policies are implemented and followed.
It is crucial to note that the forecasts for heat-related fatalities didn’t show notable disparities among adults from other racial or ethnic backgrounds or between genders.
Dr. Sameed Khatana, the study’s principal investigator, underscored the growing influence of climate change on human well-being.
“Climate change and its many manifestations will play an increasingly important role in the health of communities around the world in the coming decades. Climate change is also a health equity issue as it will impact certain individuals and populations to a disproportionate degree and may exacerbate preexisting health disparities in the U.S.,” Dr. Khatana said.
“The magnitude of the percent increase was surprising. This increase accounts for not only the known association between cardiovascular deaths and extreme heat but it is also impacted by the population getting older and the proportionate increases in the number of people from other races and/or ethnicities in the U.S.”
According to Dr. Khatana, earlier research has indicated that Black communities may face several disadvantages when it comes to heat exposure, including less air conditioning access, fewer trees providing shade, and a heightened experience of the “urban heat island effect,” where developed areas see a more significant temperature rise compared to less developed surrounding regions.
“Living conditions may also have a role in terms of social isolation, which is experienced by some older adults and has previously been linked with a higher probability of death from extreme heat,” Dr. Khatana added.
The study’s findings prompt important inquiries into whether infrastructure changes, such as boosting tree cover in specific areas, could lessen the effects of extreme heat in the U.S.
To read the study’s complete findings, which have since been published in the American Heart Association journal Circulation, visit the link here.
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