New Data Reveals COVID-19 Spurred A Prolonged Global Life Expectancy Decline And Led To Clear East-West Divide
Over the last century, the worldwide average life expectancy has more than doubled due to advancements in medicine, working, and living conditions– with people around the globe living to be over seventy years old.
But, in 2020, virtually every country was faced with the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. And this month, a new study conducted by researchers at the University of Oxford revealed that the virus caused a prolonged life expectancy decline in numerous nations.
The study used data from twenty-nine countries in Europe– including Norway, Denmark, Italy, Spain, Greece, Germany, France, and more– as well as the United States and Chile.
And perhaps unsurprisingly, every single country suffered lower life expectancies in 2021 as compared to what pre-pandemic trends predicted.
In the past, global epidemics– such as the Spanish flu– also witnessed steep declines in life expectancy. However, the “bounce back” rate was much more rapid as compared to COVID-19. This fact alone disputes the widespread claims that the pandemic was no more impactful than the common flu.
Still, the study did reveal a prominent geographical divide in 2021. Many countries in Western Europe– such as France, Belgium, Switzerland, and Sweden– experienced complete “bounce backs”– in which their life expectancies returned to 2019 pre-pandemic levels.
England and Wales did not experience the same rise, though, and only experienced a partial bounce back. Additionally, Northern Ireland and Scotland remained stagnant at the same 2020 life expectancy.
The United States and Eastern Europe experienced even worse or compounding life expectancy losses over the same time period, though.
In fact, the researchers paralleled the COVID-19 losses in Eastern Europe against the losses experienced during the Soviet Union break in 1991.
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In turn, a distinct Eastern versus Western divide in COVID-19 life expectancy was uncovered. And the most significant losses were witnessed in countries that already had lower life expectancy rates prior to the pandemic.
For instance, Bulgaria suffered the worst life expectancy decline of about forty-three months– or just over three and a half years.
Joining Bulgaria with the worst life expectancy losses included countries such as the Czech Republic, Germany, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, Greece, Lithuania, and Slovakia.
And, of course, the amount of COVID-19 vaccinations available and distributed also had an effect that mirrored the East-West divide.
The countries with higher rates of fully vaccinated citizens witnessed lower life expectancy declines and vice versa.
Interestingly, though, those who benefitted the most from these vaccination efforts were the elderly– and mortality rates increased among younger generations.
“A notable shift between 2020 and 2021 was that the age patterns of excess mortality shifted in 2021 towards younger age groups as vaccines began to protect the old,” explained Dr. Ridhi Kashyap, one of the study’s co-authors.
Still, there were countries that defied the inoculation pattern and still experienced rising life expectancy deficits despite high vaccination rates. And according to the researchers, various factors could have caused these countries to become outliers.
“Finer-grained details of the age prioritization of vaccine roll-out and the types of vaccines used may account for these differences, as well as correlations between vaccine uptake and compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions or the overall health care system capacity,” said Dr. Jonas Scholey, another one of the study’s co-authors.
According to the data, though, countries such as France, Belgium, Switzerland, and Sweden were able to strike a balance and successfully protect both young and old citizens.
It is because of this that the researchers believe these nations were able to bounce back to pre-pandemic life expectancy levels.
This is obviously not the norm for most nations, however. So now, the researchers are concerned that the COVID-19 pandemic could have a lasting effect on global life expectancy– with a divide dependent upon public health care.
“It is plausible that countries with ineffective public health responses will see a protracted health crisis induced by the pandemic with medium-term stalls in life expectancy, while other regions manage a smoother recovery to return to pre-pandemic trends,” the study concluded.
To read the study’s complete findings, which have since been published in Nature Human Behavior, visit the link here.
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